V-G Journal · Interactive Decision Tool
FIRE Capital Threshold & Sustainability Stress-Test Calculator
Go beyond the static 4% rule. Select your target FIRE lifestyle tier, evaluate your Coast FIRE readiness, and stress-test your 40-year portfolio survival against Sequence of Returns Risk (SORR) with a dynamic cash buffer reserve.
1 Select Lifestyle Archetype (Preset)
Click a preset, then fine-tune sliders below2 Lifestyle & Capital Inputs
¥20,000
¥3,000 年支出 ¥24.0万 ¥120,000
¥10,000
0 (Pure FIRE) 净提款缺口: ¥1.0万/月
¥260万
¥20万/年
45 岁
48 岁
3 Return, SORR & Cash Buffer
3.90% / 年Nominal Return
6.5%
Inflation Rate
2.5%
Target SWR
3.5%
Volatility (σ)
14.0%
¥24.0万 (2年)
Defense Rule: During negative-return crash years, living expenses are drawn from the Cash Buffer first to avoid selling equities at the bottom.
Full FIRE Capital Threshold SWR 3.5%
¥366.9万
生息组合 ¥342.9万 + 现金缓冲 ¥24.0万
Coast FIRE Threshold Today
已达标 80%
¥326.8万
若今日起停存新钱，靠复利在 48 岁达标所需本金
Estimated Time to Full FIRE
48 岁时预测
1.8 年
48 岁预计累积净值：¥354.5万
1,000-Run Monte Carlo Success Rate
极度稳健
94.2% (40+年)
无缓冲裸奔成功率 76.5% · 88岁期末 ¥412.0万
40-Year Real Purchasing Power Survival Trajectory
对比“平稳复利”、“遭遇初期熊市无缓冲裸奔”与“当前现金缓冲垫护航”三条资产曲线
Your Defense Plan (SORR + Cash Buffer)
Unbuffered Crash (0-Yr Buffer)
Smooth Baseline (No Crash)
Monte Carlo P10–P75 Band (1,000 Runs)
📋 V-G Structured Actuarial Diagnosis
SORR & Liquidity Audit| Year / Age | Market Return | Cash Buffer | With Buffer (Plan) | No Buffer (Raw) |
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📚 Deep-Dive Methodology Behind This Calculator
Learn how to build a 3-tier liquidity reserve and leverage seasonal geo-arbitrage.