#Monte Carlo Simulation
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Quantifying the FIRE Threshold: Monte Carlo Actuarial Modeling, Sequence Risk, and the Cash Cushion Defense
Linear average returns conceal Sequence of Returns Risk (SORR), forcing early retirees to liquidate equity assets at cyclical troughs. This treatise deconstructs the five-step Monte Carlo framework for FIRE portfolio survival and demonstrates how a 3.5% safe withdrawal rate coupled with a 24-month cash buffer elevates 40-year portfolio survival from 71.4% to over 94.6%.